The Art of Opportunity pt3

pt. 3

Forget Athletics

The market opens, news drops at the 30 min turn. It’s a big news report this morning. He’s been on the short side for a few weeks, taking quick drops but they’ve stopped paying and the bid seems to be coming in as the new quarter starts. ‘Maybe the mood is changing here‘ he thinks to himself.

Price pumps around, he can hear the stops getting run on both sides, nobody knows what’s going on yet and bigger players seem to be flattening before the news drops. ‘Typical‘, he thinks to himself. Better sit tight until this hits the tape.

Sure enough, the news hits and after a quick surge higher, the bid disappears and price plummets. We’re down 50 pts in what feels like a second.

Here we go

He says under his breath. ‘Let’s do this‘. That surge of adrenaline runs through his veins. He’s done his work, he’s ready for action.

He hits it short. Price drops out underneath his position and he’s quickly in profit. Knowing he needs to scalp this price action, he pulls a few contracts back off, banking in this quick move.

A slight pop takes the rest of his stops out as they trail price lower. He’s flat and up on the day. News moves like this are his bread and butter.

Price pops through stops in low liquidity. He’s seen this so many times, he acts on instinct.

Short 1/3.

Another pop, he adds as it pushes against him.

His P/L goes sharply red digging into the profits. It all happens pretty fast and despite his time in this environment, he struggles to regain clarity.

A cool head, he holds his position. In his earlier years, this may have sent panic through him but now, he quickly calculates his position size and risk. He can take this stop if he has to.

The market soon remembers it’s self and price drops again, knowing he is on the right side of this move, he adds the final piece. ‘Let’s see if this can retest yesterday’s lows‘, he thinks.

The Reversal

It comes out of nowhere.

After a sharp move down and a heavy 5 minute candle close, the move reverses as fast as it had appeared. His position is ripped out of his hands as price rockets past his entries.

He glances at his P/L, He’s red on the day now. Shit.
He’s traded perfectly so far this morning. Punching those shorts early, taking those exits where he should.

He knows he’s damn good.

The Choice.

This is the moment. What is he here do to?

Did he take those trades because it was a clear opportunity to scape some points or, to feel his skill and strength?

In this moment, is he an athlete or an opportunist?

If he’s an athlete, he needs to re-engage. He’s on the short side and he needs to show these bids who’s boss. He knows he’s good. He’ll go up against anybody in this game. ANYBODY.

If he is an opportunist, he knows that this move was just one moment. A chance. Sure, he’s a little buzzed from the work of it but he lets it go. He knows he has what it takes to take advantage. Nothing to prove here. When a moment comes, his job is to simply see it and interact with it the best he can.

High Performance Opportunist.

Why did I start this series with Ansel Adams?

Seems an obscure reference perhaps. The truth is, he embodies the full qualities of a great opportunist.

Prepared. Skilled. Patient.

Then, he leaves it to simply being in the right place at the right time.

Trust the process.

I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.

Jim Rogers

My Mountains

Yes, these are my mountains. While others may see them, I consider them mine. This picture was taken from my office window. I’m not a photographer. I don’t claim any skill in the art of photography. I pushed a button.

What did it take for me to be able to see this view? Sure, I have positioned myself to enjoy this view, when it happens. That’s key. However, I can do nothing to produce this view. It is fully up to the mountain. I am powerless.

I’ve taken risks. Made some decisions that were hard to defend in the moment. I am fully responsible for where my feet are in this world. I am just a pair of legs and a pair of eyes. Even those things I did not obtain by my own will. A gift.

I have no control over the leaves or the snow or the sun. I am just a man after-all. My life, no matter how much I deny it, is moved by forces much greater than I.

So it is with markets. So it is with all great opportunity. In fact, I would say that any opportunity you have the power to bring about is not an opportunity big enough.


I only want to interact with opportunities too big for me to manifest… chances so great, I can only sit back and watch. The rest of it is just work.


Consider this; consider the idea that perhaps chance plays a role. Perhaps there is a mystery in it all and perhaps, if you are facing the right direction when it happens you might take part in it’s occurrence.

In a world of distracted drivers, be an intentional passenger.

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